In a departure from its most recent projection in January, STR and Tourism Economics upgraded their latest 2021 U.S. hotel forecast due to better-than-expected demand in the first quarter, STR announced. Full demand recovery, however, still is projected for 2023, while revenue per available room is expected to be close to a full recovery in 2024, according to STR.
Occupancy for 2021 now is anticipated to be 53.3 percent, notably higher than the 48.6 percent forecast in January. The companies’ newly projected 2021 average daily rate of $109.47 is $1.79 higher than the previous forecast. Their 2021 RevPAR forecast now is $58.39, a figure $6.07 than what was projected in January. The three key performance indicators for the 2022 forecast, however, are all slightly down from January’s expectations.
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“An effective vaccine rollout and generous fiscal stimulus will drive the fastest single-year economic expansion in nearly 40 years,” said Tourism Economics president Adam Sacks in a statement. “Leisure demand is gathering strength with substantial recovery in sight for many markets. However, transient business, group and international travel face continued headwinds, and a full recovery will take several years.”
“As we saw in late March and early April, leisure continues to be the primary source of demand, although improving weekday occupancies indicate that some business travel is back in the marketplace,” said STR president Amanda Hite. “What remains furthest off from meaningful recovery is group business, but there is hope for upward movement in that segment as more events get back on the books.”
STR, Tourism Economics January U.S. Hotel Forecast